The Asian Development Bank predicts Uzbekistan's GDP to grow by 5.5% in 2024, followed by a slight increase to 5.6% in 2025. The growth is expected to slow down due to the impact of rising regulated prices on household incomes, potentially leading to a decrease in consumer demand.
In 2023, Uzbekistan's actual GDP growth, according to government estimates, was 6%. Last year's forecast by the ADB for Uzbekistan's 2024 GDP was 5%.
Despite the projected slowdown in growth in 2024, economic prospects remain cautiously optimistic, according to the ADB. The sectors of services and agriculture are expected to experience slower growth, while private consumption and investments are also forecasted to lose some momentum. Inflation rates are expected to remain stable due to the balance of ongoing structural reforms in the energy sector and tighter monetary policy.
However, the budget and tax policy faces challenges as structural reforms and increased social spending may limit efforts towards budget consolidation and deficit reduction. Consequently, an increase in the budget deficit is expected, along with a corresponding rise in the current account deficit due to import growth and declining revenue inflows, as projected by the ADB.
Analysts at the bank emphasize that "green" development policy is crucial for Uzbekistan's transition to a "green" economy. The current fragmentation of green policies among different ministries and agencies poses a risk to effectively achieving a green economy. The establishment of a special climate policy council is proposed to Uzbekistan as a viable solution to optimize efforts, enhance coordination, and expedite the country's transition to sustainable economic practices.
