The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has reported that the inflation expectations of the population decreased for the second month in a row in February. Price expectations for the next 12 months averaged 13% (-0.1% from January) for the general population and remained unchanged at 12.7% for entrepreneurs.
Samarkand has emerged as the leader in the most pessimistic inflation expectations. Residents of this city anticipate inflation at 15.8% (+1.1%), while businesses have improved their forecast to 16% (-1.1%). High price growth rates are also expected by residents and businesses in Tashkent - 15.7% (+1%) and 15.1% (+0.4%), as well as in the Syrdarya region - 13.8% (+0.3%) and 13.4% (+1.3%).
The most optimistic expectations are in Karakalpakstan: 9.7% (-1.5%) for the population and 9.6% (-1.7%) for businesses.
In February surveys, the main factor that could impact price growth remained the exchange rate fluctuation: 56% for the general population (compared to 55% in January) and 59% for entrepreneurs (up from 57%).
There has been a sharp increase in the percentage of respondents among the population who believe that the rise in fuel and energy prices will affect price growth in the next 12 months - 54% (up from 49%), followed by wage and allowance increases at 38% (from 24%), and rising transportation costs at 33% (up from 29%).
Businesses also believe that inflation will be influenced by the increase in fuel and energy prices at 49% (up from 43%), utility costs at 37% (compared to 35%), and the rise in transportation expenses at 35% (up from 33%).
Pensioners have become more optimistic about inflation over the next 12 months, expecting a price increase averaging 13.2% (compared to 15.2% in January), while healthcare workers have revised their forecasts from 12.8% to 15.5%.
Inflation expectations among income groups earning between 10-15 million soums continue to rise - from 13.9% to 14.2%, and for those with incomes above 15 million soums - from 15.9% to 16.1%. Expectations for price growth have decreased in other groups with lower income levels.
