The first quarter of 2024 has been successful for Kyrgyzstan's economy, with a notable increase in GDP. However, global financial institutions predict that sustaining this growth until the end of the year may be challenging.
According to official data from the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan's GDP reached 248 billion 821.6 million soms by the end of March 2024, showing an 8.8% growth from January to March.
Minister of Economy and Commerce of Kyrgyzstan, Daniiar Amanaliev, attributed this growth to structural adaptation, recovery of domestic demand, and increased investment activity. Factors affecting GDP calculations include prices, production volumes by sector, budget revenues, and government expenditures.
While the industrial sector started 2024 with strong performance, growth slowed in March due to a decline in mining activities. Industrial production saw a 4.5% increase, with notable growth in sectors such as wood and paper products, refined petroleum products, food products, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials.
Looking ahead, global financial institutions and the National Bank anticipate a more modest economic growth by the end of 2024, likely not exceeding 5%. Forecasts from the World Bank, National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, and Asian Development Bank range from 3.9% to 5%.
Experts believe that investment and private consumption will remain key growth drivers, supported by projected inflation slowdown and increased remittances. However, a potential decrease in GDP growth could result from reduced growth in construction and services. The current account deficit is expected to decrease in 2024-2025 through increased gold exports and reduced imports.
Despite expected challenges in the agricultural and energy sectors due to anticipated low water levels, the industrial sector is poised to positively influence overall GDP dynamics in Kyrgyzstan.
