Overall, the growth prospects for Central Asia and the Caucasus region are quite positive. This was announced today at a press conference by Evgeny Zhukov, the General Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for Central and Western Asia.
According to him, in Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan, after exceptionally high growth rates in 2022, growth has slowed down. This is due to a decrease in external influence.
In general, it is observed that activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia will decelerate after last year's growth in exports and the influx of Russian migrants. It is forecasted that in Kyrgyzstan, growth will return to around 5 percent this year and slightly decrease to 4.5 percent in 2025," said Evgeny Zhukov.
He noted that economists in the region predict a slowdown in economic growth rates to 4.3 percent this year. However, it is expected to increase to 5 percent in 2025.
As for the risks of economic growth deceleration, potential short-term shocks may materialize. For example, worsening global economic and financial conditions or slowing growth in neighboring large countries, as well as a repetition of history with high global prices for food and energy resources. Additionally, considering the financial situation in some countries, especially developed ones, inflationary pressures can always arise. Moreover, the tense geopolitical situation could also impact the prospects," noted the ADB General Director for Central and Western Asia.
In the long-term forecast, the prospects for Central and Western Asia remain positive. This will be facilitated by the correct state policies and continuation of reforms.
Evgeny Zhukov emphasized that the real problem lies in how to reform the economy to ensure an increase in added value and the preservation of greater value in the countries.
"And one overwhelming risk is climate change. In this part of the world, we already see that it has led to a very significant catastrophic event. We all remember the floods in Pakistan in 2022, which cost, I believe, $30 billion and affected a significant portion of the population. Recently, we also witnessed quite significant floods in the northern parts of Kazakhstan," concluded Evgeny Zhukov.
