A recent audit by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown that Turkmenistan's real GDP growth in 2023 was less than a third of the officially declared figure. The audit, conducted from March 27 to April 9, concluded that the country's economic growth had significantly slowed down. In 2022, the GDP growth rate reached 5.3%, following a 0.3% contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic the previous year. However, in 2023, the GDP growth dropped to 2%, with a forecast of 2.3% for 2024-2025.
Interestingly, Turkmenistan's Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov had claimed in February 2024 that the GDP had grown by 6.3% in 2023. This IMF assessment is three times lower than the Turkmen authorities' figure. According to the IMF, Turkmenistan's GDP in 2023 amounted to 263.87 billion manats, equivalent to $75 billion at the official exchange rate or $13.5 billion at the market rate. For comparison, Uzbekistan's GDP in 2023 is estimated at $86 billion, Kazakhstan's at $232 billion, Tajikistan's at $12 billion, and Kyrgyzstan's at $13 billion.
The IMF report also addresses the issue of the dual exchange rate system, highlighting that the overvaluation of the manat puts pressure on the economy. Regarding inflation, it is noted that after a slight decrease in 2022, it began to rise again in 2023.
