The Business Activity Index (BAI) is a key indicator that determines the state of the economy in the real sector. It is compiled based on monthly surveys of enterprises conducted by the National Bank, encompassing responses regarding business conditions and expectations for the future. A BAI value above 50 indicates positive changes, while below 50 signifies negative ones.
According to the data from the February surveys, the BAI reached a level of 50.0 for the first time in six months (compared to 49.7 in January). This growth was driven by improvements in the construction sector (February - 49.2, January - 47.2) and mining industry (February - 48.4, January - 45.9).
Interestingly, mining enterprises are still in the negative zone, citing worsened access to infrastructure, credit, and increased tax burdens. Despite this, the overall assessment of current business conditions doubled to 1.6 (from 0.8 in January), and the outlook for the first half of the year also rose to 19.7 from 17.6 in January.
Regionally, the business activity situation is mixed, with 8 regions showing improvement and 9 experiencing a decline. Astana boasts the highest BAI today at 55.5, while the lowest is in the Akmola region at 44.1.
It is worth noting that the Business Activity Index started declining in June 2023, dropping from 51.1 to 49.7 by January. Analysts from the National Bank attribute this to reduced stocks and new production in mining, as well as low order volumes in construction.
Today, the overall BAI has returned to the neutral zone, indicating an imminent transition into a growth phase.
