The Chairman of the Board of KEGOC, Nabi Aytzhanov, revealed the projected electricity deficit in Kazakhstan at a briefing following the Ministry of Energy's collegium on March 5th. Aytzhanov stated that in 2023, Kazakhstan's electricity consumption reached 115.06 billion kWh, a 1.9% increase compared to 2022.
However, electricity generation remained at the 2022 level of 112.82 billion kWh. The peak consumption in the previous year was recorded on December 13th at 16,626 MW, exceeding the 2022 peak by 167 MW. Generation at that time was 15,107 MW, lower than in 2022 by 96 MW. This indicates a decrease in power station generation despite increased demand in 2023. The deficit in electricity supply stood at 1,519 MW, covered by unplanned imports from Russia.
Looking ahead to 2024-2030, the projected electricity balance shows a significant deficit of up to 6.2 GW by 2030. Aytzhanov highlighted that the forecast energy balance for the same period indicates a deficit of up to 13.5 billion kWh by 2030, considering investment project development plans. To address this, a strategic plan for placing power facilities and a development roadmap for the power industry until 2035 have been approved in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy.
Forecasts for the upcoming autumn-winter period predict deficits in both electricity and capacity from October 2024 to March 2025. With an estimated maximum electrical load of 17.4 GW and station generation of 16.4 GW, a deficit of around 1.025 GW is expected. This shortfall could be mainly covered by imports from Russia or by limiting consumers in Kazakhstan. The current consumption growth trend suggests that the maximum load in the Southern region during the upcoming period could exceed 4,500 MW. Ensuring adequate supply and preventing constraints would require the Zhambyl GRES to operate in a five-unit mode.
On March 5th, the Minister of Energy, Almasadam Satkaliyev, reported a 28% increase in domestic consumption of liquefied petroleum gas in 2023, rising by 400,000 tons to reach 2.2 million tons compared to 2022.
