The National Bank of Kazakhstan has recently published the outcomes of a macroeconomic survey conducted among the expert community. According to the survey, forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2024 and 2025 remain at 4.5% and 5% respectively, with a slight increase for 2026 from 4.5% to 4.7%.
Regarding inflation forecasts, there has been little change for 2024, staying at 8.4% compared to the previous 8.5%. However, the forecast for 2025 has been revised upwards from 6.5% to 7%, and for 2026 from 5.7% to 6%.
Analysts also anticipate a higher base rate across the forecast horizon. Expectations for 2024 have been raised from 13.8% to 14%, for 2025 from 10.5% to 11.2%, and for 2026 from 9% to 9.8%.
The scenario conditions for oil prices in April 2024 have not undergone significant changes. The median expectations of respondents suggest that the price of Brent crude oil will average $81 per barrel in 2024 and $80 per barrel in 2025 and 2026.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan clarified that the survey involved 11 organizations specializing in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. The respondents included professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies.
