The International Monetary Fund has recently released a new report on the "World Economic Outlook," revising the projected global economic growth rate for 2024 to 3.2%. The report emphasizes the remarkable resilience of economic activity amidst the global deflation experienced during 2022-2023, showcasing steady growth rates and declining inflation trends.
Despite these positive indicators, many developing nations are still grappling with the lingering effects of the recent crises, particularly in the aftermath of the pandemic. The IMF anticipates a gradual decrease in global inflation, from an average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and further down to 4.5% in 2025.
A significant area of concern highlighted in the report is the escalating oil prices attributed to ongoing conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East. Specifically, China and Russia are singled out, with projections indicating a slowdown in China's economic growth to 4.6% in 2024 and a 3.2% growth forecast for Russia.
Regarding Kazakhstan, IMF experts forecast a 3.1% economic growth for 2024, potentially surging to 5.6% in 2025 driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field. However, there are dissenting voices, such as economic analyst Sanzhar Kaldarov, who view the IMF's projections as excessively pessimistic.
Kaldarov argues that factors such as stabilizing inflation rates, favorable oil prices above $80 per barrel, and the implementation of planned infrastructure projects will bolster the economy. Nevertheless, he acknowledges the risks posed by adverse climate events, decreased tax revenues, uncertainties in oil production volumes, and potential impacts on economic growth stemming from National Fund investments.
