In the first quarter of 2024, despite the growth in economic activity in the country, tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget (KB) showed a decrease compared to a 20% increase in the same period in 2023, according to the analysts at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK).
During January-March of the current year, tax collection amounted to 5.5 trillion tenge, compared to 5.7 trillion in the same period in 2023. The main changes were observed in tax deductions to local and republican budgets.
AFK explained that in the first quarter of the current year, the execution of the annual plan for tax collections was 19.9%, compared to 23% in the same period of the previous year.
However, KB expenditures increased by 17%, or 966 billion tenge, reaching 6.8 trillion tenge, exceeding the revenue part by 18%, or 1.1 trillion tenge.
- In local budgets, there was an overfulfillment in collections for various taxes.
- In the republican budget, the decrease was due to lower revenues from VAT, customs payments, and other taxes.
"Previously, the main contribution to the growth in expenditures was made by the social sphere, but now 92% of the expenditure growth is attributed to servicing and repaying the national debt," stated AFK.
To finance the budget deficit, new loans amounting to 1.9 trillion tenge were attracted, exceeding the annual plan by 28.1%.
Transfers from the National Fund to the republican budget amounted to 1.45 trillion tenge, or 40.3% of the annual plan, with total withdrawals from the National Fund planned at a high mark of 3.6 trillion tenge.
Overall, in the first quarter of the current year, there was a 2.5% decrease in tax revenues and a 1.8% decrease in total KB revenues, while KB expenditures increased by 16.7%, according to the analysts at AFK.
The Association predicts that the expected sharp increase in oil production in the country to 103.3 million tons in 2025 from 90 million tons in 2023, along with the expansion of production at Tengiz field while maintaining high raw material prices, may improve the budget balance and help stabilize the current account balance that has turned negative.
