The economy of Kazakhstan grew by 5.1% in annual terms over the year. These are the fastest rates in a decade, driven by a stronger production sector. Thanks to these indicators, the country has outperformed all its neighbors in the Commonwealth of Independent States.
According to the forecast of the Economic Research Institute (ERI), the aggregate growth of CIS countries in 2024 will be only 2.7%, which represents a clear slowdown compared to 2023.
Among the reasons highlighted by analysts are international sanctions against some countries, reduced trade, high interest rates, labor shortages, depleted investment flows, and high inflation. These factors will particularly impact the results in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine.
Comparing the indicators across CIS countries, the picture is as follows:
- Azerbaijan: +2.6%
The country is expected to achieve good performance due to high growth rates in investment in fixed capital. Additionally, a decrease in inflation and a softening of monetary policy will increase purchasing power. Another positive is the stable demand for energy resources in Europe. Risks include a possible resumption of military conflict with Armenia. - Belarus: +1.8%
A decline is possible in this country. Analysts believe that Belarus's economic growth may halve compared to 2023. Rising inflation, higher unemployment rates, and international sanctions will restrain domestic demand, while the presumed weakening dynamics in Russia will reduce export growth. - Russia: +2.1%
The economy risks losing momentum compared to 2023. Reasons include international sanctions, tight monetary policy, higher inflation, and a weak ruble. On the positive side, the external sector is recovering, relying on oil and gas exports. - Kazakhstan: +4.3%
Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan looks quite good, although the country's GDP growth will slow down and, according to ERI, will not reach the government's target of 6%. This is hindered by weak growth in investment in fixed capital (forecasted to be less than a third of the 2023 level). A plus is the strong oil production.
The inflation forecast for CIS countries in 2024 is as follows:
- Azerbaijan – 4.1%;
- Belarus – 6.1%;
- Kazakhstan – 8.7%;
- Russia – 6.8%.
