The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts a slight slowdown in Tajikistan's economy in 2024 and 2025 due to a decrease in remittances, fiscal constraints, and reduced global demand for its key export goods. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% in both years, following an 8.3% growth in 2023, according to the latest ADB Economic Outlook for April 2024.
The report highlights that Tajikistan faces serious climate challenges that could lead to irreversible economic, social, and environmental damage. The development of a green economy is seen as crucial for the country's sustainable growth.
With a growing population and a shortage of arable land, Tajikistan heavily relies on imported food products, which weakens food security and increases vulnerability to natural disasters. The government has prepared a Green Economy Development Strategy until 2027, focusing on 11 priority areas such as energy efficiency, waste management systems, and ecotourism.
ADB specialists urge the Tajik government to adopt a climate-oriented policy and implement a comprehensive climate fiscal framework to enhance planning, budgeting, and the realization of the Green Economy Development Strategy. They also suggest updating state procurement policies and construction standards to integrate green economy principles.
Meanwhile, inflation in Tajikistan is projected to reach 5.5% and 6.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to the revised ADB forecasts. The economists expect that currency interventions will mitigate the growth and volatility of the exchange rate.
The inflation rise is attributed to expected increases in lending due to growing deposits, a 40% raise in pensions, scholarships, and public sector salaries starting from January 1, 2024, and a 16% hike in electricity tariffs effective from the beginning of the current year, as stated in the report.
