Labor migrants play a crucial role in supporting both their families and the economy of their home country through their money transfers. Any decrease in remittance amounts not only poses economic risks but also broader challenges for the nation. After the terrorist attack near Moscow's "Crocus City Hall," efforts to identify illegal migrants have intensified.
During the initial week post-attack, there were over 1100 instances of migrants violating entry regulations into Russia. Incidences such as inspections in dormitories, widespread detentions of Tajik migrants at workplaces, and instances of Russians declining services from Tajik migrants have been observed.
Some Tajik citizens are refraining from work due to pressure from law enforcement and Russian society, while others are contemplating leaving Russia. There has been a decline in airline ticket sales from Tajikistan to Russia, with some passengers even returning their tickets.
Amidst anti-migrant sentiments in Russia, Tajikistan authorities are encouraging citizens to come back and contribute to the country's progress. However, independent analysts caution that a mass return of migrants could lead to a significant upsurge in poverty.
Economists emphasize that money transfers from labor migrants not only support their families but also play a vital role in the overall economy. International financial institutions categorize Tajikistan's economy as heavily reliant on remittances. Official information on money transfers in Tajikistan has not been available for more than a decade.
As per the World Bank, money transfers to Tajikistan amounted to $5.2 billion in 2022, constituting 49% of the country's GDP. These transfers drive consumer spending, business revenues, and government tax income, ensuring a steady flow of funds that benefits the entire market.
A reduction in remittances resulting from migrants' return could have severe repercussions, including increased poverty, diminished business liquidity, and lower tax revenues. The country heavily depends on tax income, with approximately 70% of the budget sourced from taxes.
Moreover, a scarcity of foreign currency due to reduced remittances might lead to a shortage of imported goods, potentially triggering inflation. Tajikistan imports 10 out of 19 essential goods, exacerbating the impact of reduced remittances on the population's purchasing power.
The combination of income reduction and escalating prices could escalate criminal activities and social tensions. A sudden decline in living standards could strain the social structure of the country, underscoring the significance of maintaining stable remittance flows for Tajikistan's economy.
