According to the annual report by the international human rights organization Freedom House titled "Countries in Transition - 2024," covering 29 countries in the region, democratic indicators have been decreasing for two decades. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, and other recent events have accelerated the geopolitical reconfiguration in the region. The report highlights a division between those who support a liberal democratic order and those vehemently opposing it.
The democracy rating in the past year has declined in 10 countries in the region, with improvements observed in only five. Experts attribute the region's inability to strengthen democracy to authoritarian and anti-democratic leaders. Freedom House categorizes Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia, and all Central Asian countries as "consolidated authoritarian regimes." Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Hungary, Ukraine, and others fall under "transitional or hybrid regimes," totaling 11 states.
Ten countries, including Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia, are classified as "semi-consolidated democracies." Freedom House notes that all eight countries in the authoritarian regime category continued to "lead the race to the bottom" throughout the past year. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, previously considered "less repressive within the authoritarian spectrum," now align with the "broader Central Asian trend of authoritarian consolidation."
Uzbekistan scored 1.18 out of 7 possible points according to Freedom House, slightly lower than the previous year's 1.21. Kyrgyzstan's democratic index decreased to 1.64 from 1.68, Kazakhstan's to 1.29 from 1.32, Tajikistan's to 1.04, and Turkmenistan's to 1. Belarus received 1.11, while Russia and Azerbaijan each scored 1.07.
Estonia achieved the highest score in the region with 6 points, followed by Latvia and Slovenia with 5.79 each. Ukraine's democratic development was rated at 3.43, Armenia at 3.07, and Georgia at 3.04. In March, Freedom House released its annual freedom rating, where Uzbekistan scored 12 out of 100 possible points, and all Central Asian countries were classified as "not free."
